Gold Holds the $2,400 Mark Ahead of May FOMC Meeting
Spot gold continues to consolidate near key technical resistance as traders wait for fresh rate-path signals from the Federal Reserve.
Market Overview
Spot gold (XAU/USD) is trading around $2,418 per ounce in the Asian session, holding the consolidation range that has lasted for more than a week. Buyers stepped back in after the 50-day moving average was successfully retested late last week.
Key Fundamental Drivers
- FOMC meeting: Markets are pricing a 68% probability that the Fed holds rates steady at the upcoming meeting.
- US Treasury yields: The 10-year yield has eased from 4.72% to 4.55%, providing a tailwind for the metal.
- US dollar: The DXY is down 0.4% on the week, helping gold recover.
- Safe-haven demand: Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to attract capital into safe assets.
Technical Picture
On the daily chart, gold is forming a symmetrical triangle with the following key levels:
| Price | Role |
|---|---|
| $2,435 | Near-term resistance |
| $2,460 | Strong resistance (April high) |
| $2,395 | Near-term support (50-DMA) |
| $2,370 | Strong support |
The RSI sits at 54, signalling the market is not yet overbought. MACD is starting to cross above its signal line, which supports the recovery scenario.
Trade Scenarios
Bull case: A break above $2,435 on healthy volume opens the path toward $2,460, with the all-time high of $2,485 as the next target. A reasonable stop-loss sits at $2,408.
Bear case: A daily close below $2,395 would shift pressure toward $2,370. Losing that floor could send price down to $2,330.
Notes for Traders
Volatility is likely to stay elevated this week with US PCE inflation data and the Fed Chair's speech on the calendar. Position sizing should be conservative. Exness Pro and Raw Spread accounts offer very tight spreads on XAU/USD, which suits short-term, news-driven strategies.
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Views expressed are the author's own and do not constitute investment advice.
