EUR/USD Consolidates Near 1.0840 Ahead of US CPI

Current Action

EUR/USD is trading at 1.0842 in the London session, broadly flat on the week. The five-session range has been just 75 pips, reflecting how cautious the market is right now.

Monetary Policy Backdrop

Both the Fed and ECB are at the tail end of their tightening cycles, but the ECB is expected to ease first:

• ECB: Markets price an 82% probability of a 25 basis-point cut in June.
• Fed: The first cut is more likely in Q3.

This divergence is theoretically negative for the euro, but flows have so far kept the pair in equilibrium.

Technical View

On the H4 chart, EUR/USD is forming a falling wedge — a pattern that often resolves to the upside:

• Resistance: 1.0875 (top of wedge) → 1.0920
• Support: 1.0810 (bottom of wedge) → 1.0780

Declining volume during the consolidation strengthens the case for an eventual breakout.

Suggested Approach

Wait for a clear breakout signal before committing. A 4-hour close above 1.0875 with rising volume opens the door to 1.0920, with stops placed at 1.0855.

With spreads as low as 0.1 pip on the Exness Raw Spread account, even tight technical setups become viable for retail traders.